The 2025-26 Premier League season is entering its decisive phase. The title race between Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City remains genuinely open, half a dozen clubs are scrapping for European places, and the relegation fight could go to the final weekend. Here is how we think the rest of the season will play out.
The title: Arsenal to edge it
After two agonising near-misses, we predict Arsenal will finally win the Premier League in 2025-26.
Defensive solidity
Arsenal have the best defensive record in the division. The William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes partnership has become one of Europe’s best centre-back pairings, and Declan Rice’s shielding in front of them means opponents rarely create clean chances. In tight title races, the ability to win 1-0 on an off day often separates champions from runners-up.
Squad depth
Mikel Arteta has built a squad with real quality across every position. The rotation between Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz at centre-forward keeps both fresh, and the midfield alternatives of Thomas Partey, Jorginho, and Fabio Vieira give Arsenal options their rivals cannot always match.
Set-piece dominance
Arsenal’s set-piece record has been a genuine differentiator this season. Goals from corners and free kicks have provided a reliable scoring source in matches where open-play creativity has dried up. Nicolas Jover’s coaching in this area is one of the most valuable assets in English football, and the edge it provides could be worth several extra points over the run-in.
Fixture run-in
The remaining fixtures favour Arsenal slightly. They still face Liverpool and Manchester City, but a higher proportion of their games are against bottom-half sides. Their home record has been near-perfect, and with several of these remaining fixtures at the Emirates, the schedule is on their side.
The caveat
Arsenal’s persistent weakness has been the psychological pressure of a title run-in. Twice under Arteta, they have been in winning positions and faltered. Closing out a championship demands something different from staying in the race, and until they have actually crossed the line, doubts will linger. We think this is the year they get over that barrier, but it is far from certain. For a full breakdown of the current table, see our standings analysis.
Liverpool: strong second
Liverpool under Arne Slot will finish as worthy runners-up, but we predict they fall just short. The problem is not quality. Mohamed Salah’s exceptional goalscoring form and the defensive structure Slot has implemented are both elite-level. The issue is competing on multiple fronts.
Liverpool’s Champions League campaign is progressing well, and the additional fixtures and physical toll of European competition may cost them in the final domestic weeks. Slot’s squad is strong but perhaps lacks Arsenal’s depth in certain positions, and the reliance on Salah, Virgil van Dijk, and Trent Alexander-Arnold means any injury to a core figure could be devastating.
The Salah contract situation also introduces uncertainty. Even if his professionalism prevents it from affecting his on-pitch performance, the atmosphere around the club may shift during the tense final months.
Manchester City: third, but never count them out
Predicting Manchester City to finish third feels almost disrespectful given their record under Pep Guardiola, but the evidence points to a transitional season. The squad reconstruction is still in progress, and the inconsistency that has defined their campaign is unlikely to disappear entirely.
Erling Haaland will keep scoring at a ridiculous rate, and City will put together winning runs that remind everyone what they are capable of. But the relentless consistency required to win a fifth straight title may be beyond this version of the squad. Kevin De Bruyne’s fitness is the key variable: a fully fit De Bruyne could swing the title race, while his continued absence would confirm third place.
City’s season may ultimately be defined by the Champions League rather than the league, with Guardiola prioritising the European trophy.
Top four: Villa to hold on
The fourth Champions League place will go to Aston Villa. Unai Emery’s side have shown the consistency and tactical intelligence needed to stay in the top four, and their experience of Champions League football this season has strengthened rather than weakened their league form.
Villa’s midfield, with Youri Tielemans’ energy and Morgan Rogers’ creativity, provides a solid platform. Ollie Watkins’ goals and Pau Torres’ defensive quality make them dangerous at both ends. Their home form at Villa Park has been excellent, and the crowd has become a real factor in tight matches.
Newcastle United will finish fifth, narrowly missing out on the Champions League. Alexander Isak’s goals will keep them in contention until late in the season, but defensive lapses and a thin squad will cost them. Chelsea take sixth, a creditable finish reflecting progress under Enzo Maresca, though the young squad’s inconsistency will prevent them finishing higher.
Tottenham will finish seventh, claiming a Conference League spot. Ange Postecoglou’s entertaining but unpredictable football will produce memorable wins and frustrating defeats in roughly equal measure.
Europa League and Conference League
The Europa League places will be contested by Newcastle, Chelsea, and Tottenham, with Manchester United on the periphery. United’s season has been disappointing relative to expectations, and a seventh-or-eighth-place finish would represent another year of underachievement at Old Trafford.
Brighton, continuing the progressive football philosophy established by Roberto De Zerbi and Graham Potter before him, will finish in the top half but short of European qualification. Their model of developing and selling talent is admired across the league, but it also limits what they can achieve in any single season.
Relegation: three to go down
Our prediction: Leicester City, Southampton, and Ipswich Town will be relegated.
Leicester City have found the step back up more difficult than their 2015-16 fairy tale might suggest. The squad lacks depth at this level, and despite some spirited performances, the points return has not been good enough.
Southampton have spent much of the season in the relegation zone. Russell Martin’s possession-based approach has won admirers, but it has not produced enough results. The Saints cannot convert their ball dominance into goals, and a lack of individual quality in the final third has made things worse.
Ipswich Town are the most sympathetic case. Kieran McKenna has done superb work to bring the club back to the top flight, and their organisation and effort are beyond question. But the financial gap between Ipswich and the established Premier League sides is too wide, and survival was always going to be a tall order. A return to the Championship would not diminish what McKenna has achieved, and Ipswich would be strong candidates for an immediate return.
Wolverhampton Wanderers will survive, but only just. A late-season run of results, driven by renewed confidence and favourable fixtures, will see Wolves scrape to safety. The margins will be tiny, perhaps a single point or even goal difference, but they will do enough.
The biggest risk to these predictions
The greatest unknown is injuries to key players. A serious injury to Salah, Saka, or Haaland would reshape the title race overnight. Losing a key defender or goalkeeper at a relegation-threatened club could tip the balance just as decisively. Football at this level runs on fine margins, and the unpredictability of injuries makes any predictions inherently provisional.
The transfer window is closed, so the squads are set. It comes down to fitness, form, and nerve. The 2025-26 Premier League has already delivered outstanding entertainment, and the final act should be the best of all. For a look at how England’s top flight compares to its continental rivals, check our global league rankings.
We will revisit these predictions as the season progresses and the picture becomes clearer.