With the 2025-26 Premier League season entering its decisive phase, the battles at every level of the table are poised to deliver a dramatic conclusion. The title race between Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City remains genuinely open, the scramble for European places involves half a dozen clubs, and the relegation fight could go to the final weekend. Here are our considered predictions for how the rest of the season will unfold.
The Title: Arsenal to Edge It
After two agonising near-misses, we predict that Arsenal will finally claim the Premier League title in 2025-26. The reasoning is built on several pillars.
Defensive Solidity
Arsenal’s defensive record is the best in the division. The partnership of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes has matured into one of the finest centre-back pairings in Europe, and the protection offered by Declan Rice in front of them means that opponents rarely create high-quality chances against the Gunners. In tight title races, defensive resilience is often the deciding factor, and Arsenal’s ability to win 1-0 when they are not at their fluent best is a champion’s trait.
Squad Depth
Mikel Arteta has assembled a squad with genuine quality in every position. The rotation between Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz in the centre-forward role means both players remain fresh, and the depth in midfield — with Thomas Partey, Jorginho, and Fabio Vieira providing alternatives — gives Arsenal options that their rivals cannot always match.
Set-Piece Dominance
Arsenal’s set-piece prowess has been a significant differentiator this season. Goals from corners and free kicks have provided a reliable source of scoring in matches where open-play creativity has been limited. Nicolas Jover’s set-piece coaching has become one of the most valuable assets in English football, and the advantage it provides could be worth several additional points over the course of the season.
Fixture Run-In
The remaining fixtures favour Arsenal slightly. While they face Liverpool and Manchester City in marquee matches, a higher proportion of their games are against sides in the bottom half. Their home record this season has been near-perfect, and with several of these fixtures at the Emirates, the schedule tilts in their favour.
The Caveat
The caveat, as always with Arsenal, is whether they can handle the psychological pressure of a title run-in. Twice before under Arteta, they have been in winning positions only to falter. The mental fortitude required to close out a championship is different from the resolve needed to stay in the race, and until Arsenal have crossed the line, doubts will persist. We believe this is the year they overcome that barrier, but it is not a certainty. For a full breakdown of the current standings, see our standings analysis .
Liverpool: Strong Second
Liverpool under Arne Slot will finish as worthy runners-up, but we predict they will fall just short of the title. The reason is not a lack of quality — Mohamed Salah’s exceptional goal-scoring form and the defensive structure Slot has implemented are both elite — but rather the cumulative effect of competing on multiple fronts.
Liverpool’s Champions League campaign is progressing well, and the additional fixtures and physical demands of European competition may take a toll in the final weeks of the domestic season. Slot’s squad is strong but perhaps lacks the depth of Arsenal’s in certain positions, and the reliance on key players like Salah, Virgil van Dijk, and Trent Alexander-Arnold means that any injury to a core figure could be devastating.
The Salah contract situation also introduces an element of uncertainty. Even if the Egyptian’s professionalism prevents it from affecting his on-pitch performance, the atmosphere around the club may be subtly affected during the tense final months.
Manchester City: Third, But Never Out
Predicting Manchester City to finish third feels almost disrespectful given their record under Pep Guardiola, but the evidence points to this being a transitional season. The squad reconstruction is still in progress, and the inconsistency that has characterised their campaign — brilliant one week, unconvincing the next — is unlikely to disappear entirely.
Erling Haaland will continue to score goals at a prodigious rate, and City will put together winning runs that remind everyone of their quality. But the consistency required to win a fifth consecutive title may be beyond this particular iteration of the squad. Kevin De Bruyne’s fitness remains the key variable: a fully fit De Bruyne could swing the title race, while his continued absence would confirm City’s third-place finish.
City’s season may ultimately be defined by their Champions League campaign rather than the Premier League, with Guardiola prioritising the European trophy that has eluded him at the club for much of his tenure.
Top Four: Villa to Hold On
The fourth Champions League place will go to Aston Villa. Unai Emery’s side have shown the consistency and tactical intelligence needed to stay in the top four, and their experience of Champions League football this season has strengthened rather than weakened their league campaign.
Villa’s midfield, featuring the industry of Youri Tielemans and the creativity of Morgan Rogers, provides a solid platform, while Ollie Watkins’ goals and Pau Torres’ defensive excellence make them dangerous at both ends. Their home form at Villa Park has been outstanding, and the crowd has become a genuine factor in tight matches.
Newcastle United will finish fifth, narrowly missing out on the Champions League. Alexander Isak’s goals will keep them in contention until late in the season, but defensive lapses and a thin squad will ultimately cost them. Chelsea will take sixth, a creditable finish that reflects the progress under Enzo Maresca, though the young squad’s inconsistency will prevent a higher placing.
Tottenham will finish seventh, claiming a European Conference League spot. Ange Postecoglou’s entertaining but unpredictable football will produce memorable victories and frustrating defeats in roughly equal measure.
Europa League and Conference League
The Europa League places will be contested by Newcastle, Chelsea, and Tottenham, with Manchester United on the periphery. United’s season has been disappointing relative to expectations, and a seventh-or-eighth-place finish would represent another year of underachievement at Old Trafford.
Brighton, under a manager who has continued the progressive football philosophy established by Roberto De Zerbi and before him Graham Potter, will finish in the top half but short of European qualification. Their model of developing and selling talent remains the envy of many clubs, but it also places a ceiling on their ambitions in any single season.
Relegation: Three to Go Down
Relegation is the cruelest outcome in football, and predicting which three clubs will drop to the Championship is always fraught with uncertainty. Our prediction: Leicester City, Southampton, and Ipswich Town will be relegated.
Leicester City have found the step back up to the Premier League more challenging than their 2015-16 fairytale might suggest. The squad lacks the quality in depth to survive consistently at this level, and despite spirited performances, the points return has been insufficient.
Southampton have been in the relegation zone for much of the season, and while Russell Martin’s possession-based approach has won admirers, it has not produced enough results. The Saints’ inability to convert possession into goals has been their undoing, and a lack of individual quality in the final third has compounded the problem.
Ipswich Town are the most sympathetic case. Kieran McKenna has done excellent work to bring the club back to the top flight, and their organization and effort cannot be questioned. But the financial gap between Ipswich and the established Premier League sides is significant, and survival was always going to be a tough ask. A return to the Championship would not diminish what McKenna has achieved, and Ipswich would be strong candidates for an immediate return.
Wolverhampton Wanderers will survive, but only just. A late-season run of results, driven by renewed confidence and favourable fixtures, will see Wolves scrape to safety. The margins will be tiny — perhaps a single point or even goal difference — but they will do enough.
The Biggest Risk to These Predictions
The greatest unknown is injuries to key players. A serious injury to Salah, Saka, or Haaland would reshape the title race overnight. Similarly, the loss of a key defender or goalkeeper in a relegation-threatened side could tip the balance decisively. Football at this level is played on fine margins, and the unpredictability of injuries makes any set of predictions inherently provisional.
The transfer window is closed, so the squads are set. It is now about fitness, form, and nerve. The 2025-26 Premier League season has already provided outstanding entertainment, and the final act promises to be the best of all. For a look at how England’s top flight compares to its continental rivals, check our global league rankings .
We will revisit these predictions as the season progresses and the picture becomes clearer. Until then, enjoy what promises to be a memorable conclusion to a remarkable campaign.