The Champions League knockout rounds represent the pinnacle of European club football. Every match is sudden death over two legs, every tactical decision is magnified, and the margin between progression and elimination is often razor-thin. Here is our comprehensive preview of the 2025-26 knockout phase.
The Playoff Round: Setting the Stage
The clubs finishing ninth through twenty-fourth in the league phase must navigate the playoff round before reaching the Round of 16. These ties pair clubs from the 9th-10th positions against those finishing 23rd-24th, with the higher-ranked team enjoying home advantage in the second leg.
Key Playoff Ties to Watch
The draw has produced several intriguing matchups that could have been Round of 16 ties in their own right.
Atletico Madrid vs. Celtic: Atletico’s experience in tight European knockout matches gives them a clear advantage, but Celtic’s atmospheric home ground and the passion of their supporters could make the first leg in Glasgow a genuine test. Diego Simeone’s side are past masters at managing two-legged ties, controlling tempo and exploiting moments of vulnerability. Celtic will need to be at their aggressive, attacking best to take an advantage to Madrid.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Sporting CP: Two clubs with strong traditions in European competition meet in a tie that promises open, attacking football. Dortmund’s Signal Iduna Park is one of the most intimidating venues in European football, and the Yellow Wall will be a factor if Dortmund can earn a positive result in Lisbon. Sporting’s technical quality and tactical organisation under their coaching staff make them dangerous opponents, but Dortmund’s firepower should see them through.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Benfica: PSG’s league phase was underwhelming by their standards, and the French champions find themselves in the playoff round rather than the Round of 16 — a source of frustration for a club with Champions League ambitions. Benfica are experienced campaigners in Europe and will pose a genuine threat, particularly at the Estadio da Luz. PSG’s individual talent should prevail, but this is a tie that could produce an upset.
AC Milan vs. Feyenoord: A clash of European royalty. Milan’s seven Champions League titles speak to a pedigree that few clubs can match, and the San Siro under the lights for a knockout tie is one of football’s great experiences. Feyenoord, inspired by their recent Eredivisie dominance and European adventures, will not be overawed, and their pressing intensity could cause Milan problems.
Round of 16: The Elite Converge
The Round of 16 will bring together the eight teams who qualified directly from the league phase with the eight playoff winners. The draw will determine the specific matchups, but we can anticipate the types of ties that will emerge.
Potential Blockbuster Ties
The draw mechanism ensures that first-placed teams face playoff winners and that clubs from the same national association cannot meet in the Round of 16 (though they can from the quarter-finals onwards). This creates the possibility of several mouth-watering encounters.
Real Madrid vs. a Playoff Winner: Real Madrid’s top-eight finish gives them a theoretically easier draw, but the Champions League has a habit of producing surprises. Any team facing Real Madrid knows they are up against the competition’s most successful club, and the psychological weight of that history can be both an inspiration and a burden for opponents.
Real Madrid’s approach to knockout football is distinctive. Carlo Ancelotti — or whoever occupies the Real Madrid dugout — typically sets up to absorb pressure and strike on the counter, trusting in individual brilliance to produce decisive moments. Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham are the players most likely to produce those moments, and opponents must prepare for their threat while maintaining their own attacking ambitions.
Bayern Munich vs. a Playoff Winner: Bayern’s home advantage at the Allianz Arena is particularly significant this season, with the final scheduled for the same venue. The prospect of a home final has motivated Bayern throughout the tournament, and they will approach every knockout tie with the intensity of a team playing for their own backyard.
Bayern’s tactical approach in knockout football tends to be more pragmatic than their domestic style. The Bavarian press, so intense in Bundesliga matches, is often modulated in European ties to conserve energy and reduce vulnerability to counter-attacks. This pragmatism, combined with their quality in depth, makes Bayern one of the hardest teams to eliminate over two legs.
Arsenal vs. a Playoff Winner: Arsenal’s defensive strength makes them ideally suited to knockout football. The Gunners’ ability to stifle opponents and score from set pieces has been well documented in the Premier League , and these qualities translate effectively to the European stage. Mikel Arteta’s game management — his ability to read matches and make timely substitutions and tactical adjustments — will be tested in the high-pressure environment of the Champions League knockout rounds.
The challenge for Arsenal is converting their defensive solidity into attacking threat against teams who are content to sit deep and defend. In the league phase, Arsenal occasionally struggled to break down organised defences, and this issue could resurface against experienced European opponents who are comfortable defending for extended periods.
Tactical Themes in the Knockout Rounds
Pressing vs. Pragmatism: The knockout rounds always produce a tension between teams who want to press aggressively and those who prefer to control space and play on the counter. The most successful sides tend to find a balance, pressing selectively rather than constantly, and choosing their moments to commit numbers forward.
Away Goals: With the away goals rule having been abolished by UEFA, the dynamics of two-legged ties have shifted. Teams no longer receive additional credit for scoring away from home, which has led to more cautious first-leg performances and more dramatic second legs. Expect several ties to be decided in extra time or on penalties.
Squad Depth: The knockout rounds coincide with the most demanding period of the domestic season, and squad depth becomes a crucial factor. Teams with the resources to rotate without significant drop-off in quality — Manchester City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich — have a structural advantage over clubs with thinner squads.
Experience: There is no substitute for experience in Champions League knockout football. Players who have been through these pressure-cooker matches before are better equipped to handle the intensity, the crowd hostility, and the weight of expectation. This is why clubs like Real Madrid, who have a core of players with extensive knockout-round experience, are perennially dangerous regardless of their domestic form.
Quarter-Final Outlook
While it is premature to predict specific quarter-final ties before the Round of 16 is completed, we can identify the clubs most likely to reach the last eight.
The favourites — Real Madrid, Manchester City, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Inter Milan — have the quality and experience to navigate the Round of 16 and reach the quarter-finals. The composition of the last eight will depend largely on the draw and on whether any playoff winners can sustain a giant-killing run into the later rounds.
Historically, the quarter-finals are where the tournament begins to take shape. The remaining eight clubs are almost always genuine contenders, and the ties at this stage produce some of the competition’s most memorable matches. The two-legged format rewards tactical intelligence and mental resilience, and the clubs who emerge from the quarter-finals will have earned their place among European football’s elite.
Predictions
Our predictions for the 2025-26 Champions League knockout rounds:
Semi-finalists: Real Madrid, Manchester City, Arsenal, Bayern Munich
Finalists: Real Madrid vs. Arsenal
Winner: Real Madrid
Real Madrid’s Champions League pedigree gives them the edge in a tournament where experience and composure under pressure are decisive. Arsenal will push them hard, but the weight of history favours the Spanish giants. However, should Arsenal maintain the form that has driven their Premier League title challenge , they are more than capable of producing a historic result.
The road to Munich promises to be one of the most exciting Champions League knockout phases in years. With the World Cup 2026 on the horizon, many players will be desperate to end their club season on a high before turning their attention to international duty.