The Champions League knockout rounds are where reputations are made and seasons collapse. Two legs, no safety net, and the difference between going through and going home often comes down to one mistake or one piece of brilliance. Here’s how the 2025-26 knockout phase is shaping up.
The playoff round
Clubs finishing ninth through twenty-fourth in the league phase face the playoff round before they can reach the Round of 16. The draw pairs clubs from the 9th-10th positions against those finishing 23rd-24th, with the higher-ranked team at home for the second leg.
Playoff ties to watch
The draw has thrown up several matchups that wouldn’t look out of place in the Round of 16.
Atletico Madrid vs. Celtic – Atletico know how to grind through two-legged ties better than almost anyone, and Simeone’s record in knockout football backs that up. But the first leg is in Glasgow, and Celtic Park on a European night is no place for a quiet evening. Celtic will throw everything forward, trying to build a lead before heading to Madrid. Whether that ambition leaves them exposed against a side as clinical as Atletico is the question.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Sporting CP – This one should be open and entertaining. Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park, with the Yellow Wall at full volume, is an enormous home advantage if they can avoid losing ground in Lisbon first. Sporting are well-organised and technically sharp, but Dortmund’s attacking quality should be enough to see them through.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Benfica – PSG in the playoff round rather than the Round of 16 says a lot about their league phase. The French champions underperformed, and now they face a Benfica side who are always dangerous in European competition, especially at the Estadio da Luz. PSG’s talent should get them through, but this has upset potential written all over it.
AC Milan vs. Feyenoord – Seven Champions League titles for Milan, and the San Siro under floodlights for a knockout tie still hits differently. Feyenoord, riding the confidence of their recent Eredivisie dominance, won’t be intimidated though. Their pressing game could cause Milan real problems if the Italians are sluggish early.
Round of 16: where it gets serious
The Round of 16 pairs the eight direct qualifiers from the league phase with the eight playoff winners. Specific matchups depend on the draw, but we can already see how the big guns will approach things.
What to expect from the favourites
The draw rules prevent clubs from the same national association meeting in the Round of 16 (though that restriction lifts from the quarter-finals). First-placed teams face playoff winners, which theoretically gives the top seeds an easier path. Theory and the Champions League don’t always agree.
Real Madrid – Whoever they draw, the opponent faces a club that has won this competition 15 times. That history weighs on you. Ancelotti’s sides tend to absorb pressure in knockout ties and then punish opponents on the break, trusting Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham to produce the decisive moments. Simple plan, brutally effective.
Bayern Munich – The Allianz Arena hosts this year’s final, and Bayern know it. The prospect of lifting the trophy on home turf is driving everything they do in this competition. In knockout football, Bayern tend to dial back the relentless Bundesliga pressing and play a more measured game, conserving energy and limiting exposure to counters. Their depth allows them to rotate without losing much quality, and that matters as the schedule piles up.
Arsenal – Arteta’s side are built for knockout football. They defend in numbers, score from set pieces, and manage games with discipline. All well-documented in the Premier League, and all qualities that translate well to two-legged European ties. The worry for Arsenal is breaking down sides that sit deep and force them to create in open play. In the league phase, they occasionally looked short of ideas against packed defences.
Tactical themes to watch
Pressing vs. sitting off – Every knockout round produces this tension. Some teams want to squeeze opponents high up the pitch; others want to drop off and play on the counter. The sides that tend to go furthest are the ones who can do both, pressing in bursts rather than for 90 minutes, and knowing when to sit in.
Life without the away goals rule – UEFA scrapped the away goals rule, and it has changed how teams approach two-legged ties. First legs have become more cautious, second legs more chaotic. Expect more ties going to extra time and penalties this year.
Squad depth – The knockout rounds fall during the most congested stretch of the domestic calendar. Teams who can rotate without a noticeable dip in quality (Manchester City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich) have a real structural advantage over clubs relying on the same eleven every week.
Big-game experience – Players who have been through Champions League quarter-finals and semi-finals before handle the pressure, the hostile crowds, and the tactical chess of knockout football differently. This is why Real Madrid, with a squad full of players who have won the thing, remain dangerous regardless of how their league form looks.
Quarter-final outlook
Predicting specific quarter-final ties before the Round of 16 is finished is guesswork, but the clubs most likely to be there are obvious: Real Madrid, Manchester City, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Inter Milan. If one of them falls early, that’s the upset of the round.
The quarter-finals are where the Champions League takes shape. By that stage, everyone left genuinely believes they can win it. The two-legged format rewards tactical intelligence and composure, and the ties at this stage regularly produce some of the best football of the entire season.
Predictions
Here’s where we think this is heading:
Semi-finalists: Real Madrid, Manchester City, Arsenal, Bayern Munich
Finalists: Real Madrid vs. Arsenal
Winner: Real Madrid
Real Madrid’s record in this competition gives them the edge when margins are thin and pressure is high. Arsenal will make it difficult, but Madrid have been finding ways to win Champions League knockout ties for longer than most of their opponents have been alive. That said, if Arsenal maintain the form behind their Premier League title challenge, they are more than capable of pulling off an upset.
The road to Munich should produce one of the better knockout phases in recent memory. With the World Cup 2026 looming after the final, plenty of players will be desperate to end their club season with a trophy before switching to international duty.